Voter casts his ballot
"The potential for discord in this new alliance of convenience between the PPP and PML-N is considerable on a range of important issues beyond power-sharing."View a photo essay of election day in Pakistan by Brian Katulis.
Here in Islamabad, Pakistanis are breathing a collective sigh of relief that last Monday’s elections were conducted without any major incidents of violence or massive fraud that many people had anticipated. U.S. election observers noted that the elections gave voters the chance to express their will, despite some irregularities on Election Day and considerable challenges in the pre-election environment, including violence, emergency rule imposed by President Pervez Musharraf last November, and an assault on Pakistan’s independent judiciary. In the face of these challenges, Pakistan’s voters took a leap of faith that the candidates that they voted for will move the country forward.
Although the voting is done, the post-election political maneuvering has just begun, with the victors beginning to discuss the formation of a new governing coalition. In Pakistan’s political system, a new prime minister will come to power only after the various political parties agree to come together to form a new government. The fate of President Musharraf, whose controversial reelection last fall as president for another five years in a vote boycotted by leading opposition parties, hangs in the balance, depending on which parties form the new governing coalition. If the winners of last Monday’s election can form a two-third majority coalition that opposes Musharraf’s rule, they could move to impeach Musharraf and remove him from office this year.
Negotiations on forming a new government among the various parties are underway, and they are not likely to be easy. To maximize the chances for a lasting success, however, the negotiations should be left in the hands of the Pakistani’s themselves, free from outside interference.
Less than four days after these elections, some observers here in Pakistan were already criticizing U.S. officials’ involvement in discussions with Pakistani leaders, even before some of these leaders had a chance to meet with each other. Some criticized U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson’s meeting with the co-chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday, a meeting that fed perceptions that the United States is trying to tinker and influence the post-election process. Others worried that the Bush administration has remained too vocal in its support and insistence that Musharraf remain as a key player in Pakistan’s government and politics. In addition to the United States, it is quite likely that other key countries, including Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, will likely try to play a role in shaping the outcome of Pakistani leaders’ power-sharing negotiations.
At some point, these outside actors might play an important role in facilitating dialogue between the different Pakistani parties. But at this early stage in the process, it would be better to let the winners and losers from Pakistan’s elections take the lead in these negotiations. It would be counterproductive for the United States and other countries to be seen as taking an activist role in these post-election negotiations. A time may come where mediation by outsiders might serve the interests of Pakistan, but now is the time for Pakistan’s leaders to try to sort out these challenges by themselves.
To that end, yesterday, Zardari, held separate meetings with Pakistan Muslim League-N’s (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif and the chief of the Awami National Party (ANP) Asfandyar Wali to begin discussions on what Zardari described as a PPP-led “government of national consensus.” A broader range of political parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) aligned with Musharraf and the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) will also likely factor into the post-election negotiations.
But at this early stage in the process, the two key figures are Zardari and Sharif - and both have less than stellar reputations among the public here. Zardari, who is former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s widower, has a spotty reputation because of his alleged involvement in corruption. In fact, he is known by some as “Mr. Ten Percent” for the kickbacks that he demanded for projects during his wife’s rule. Sharif, who served two terms as prime minister from 1990 to 1993 and from 1997 until he was deposed in a coup led by Musharraf in 1999, was barred from running as a candidate in these elections because of criminal and corruption charges. Despite this past, these two political leaders are the ones who will have a strong say in the next steps that Pakistan will take in forming a new government.
Zardari and Sharif agreed in principle to form a coalition yesterday, announcing this accord at a two-hour press conference here in Pakistan. But they offered few details on how they would work together to address some of the key unresolved questions that might divide their newly announced alliance. Both affirmed a common goal in restoring an independent judiciary, but they offered few clues about how they would go about doing that while assuring their own individual political survival given the outstanding charges and investigations against both of them.
The potential for discord in this new alliance of convenience between the PPP and PML-N is considerable on a range of important issues beyond power-sharing, including how a new government would confront the militants and extremist groups that have increasingly undermined Pakistan’s security.
After taking a crucial first step in the right direction, all will best be served if in the immediate post-election phase the next steps along the path are handled by the key Pakistani players themselves.