There are a total of 342 seats in the Pakistani National Assembly, the country’s lower house. Of those, 272 are subject to direct election while 60 are allocated to women and 10 are allocated to religious minorities through proportional representation.
National Assembly Results*
113 Pakistan People’s Party-Parliamentarians (PPP-P): Left-of-center, secular, party of former Prime Minister Benezir Bhutto; held 80 seats in the previous parliament.
84 Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N): Conservative and centrist, party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif; had 18 members in the previous parliament.
55 Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-I-Azam (PML-Q): Conservative and centrist, party of President Musharraf; previously controlled 118 seats.
25 Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM): Nationalist, partner of the PML-Q in the previous parliament; previously had 17 representatives.
14 Awami National Party (ANP): Left-of-center, Pashtun, focused in North West Frontier Province; previously held no seats.
7 Mutthida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA): Conservative, religious, coalition of six religious parties primarily in North West Frontier Province; controlled 59 seats in the previous parliament.
5 Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F): Also held 5 seats in the previous parliament.
1 Pakistan People’s Party-Sherpao (PPP-S): Had 2 members in the previous parliament.
33 Independent/Others: 43 in the previous parliament.
*(NOTE: Elections for 5 National Assembly spots were postponed and are still undeclared due to the law and order situation. Results include the proportionally allocated seats for women and religious minorities.)
Monitoring
The elections were monitored by governmental and non-governmental foreign and domestic observers. Conditions before the election indicated that it would not conform to international standards. Widespread violence, incomplete voter lists, and restrictions on campaigning made it difficult for opposition parties to gather support. The elections themselves, however, were deemed to be competitive and free of rigging. Monitors reported police intimidation, inaccurate voting lists and low participation of women while opposition parties noted that rigging took place on the margins. Relative to past Pakistani elections, however, these were found to be more credible by a variety of authorities.
Trends to Watch
• Provincial Elections: Elections were also held at the provincial level in which opposition parties made gains.
o PPP took a majority of the vote in Sindh.
o PML-N did very well in Punjab.
o In the North West Frontier Province, which was previously a dominated by religious hardliners, moderates won.
• Coalition Formation: With no party having secured a working majority in the National Assembly, a coalition government will have to form:
o The three main opposition parties (PPP, PML and ANP) agreed to form a new government.
o They agreed in principle to restore the independent judiciary.
o There is no agreement thus far on whether to seek President Musharraf’s ouster and on who will become prime minister.
o Though this number has not yet been reached, if the coalition grows past 2/3 of the National Assembly (228), it can impeach Musharraf.
People to Watch
• Pervez Musharraf - President Musharraf accepted his party’s defeat but intends to remain president. Nearly all of Musharraf’s cabinet, including his party president, speaker of the National Assembly and several other close allies lost re-election bids. However, Musharraf still has the strong backing of the United States.
• Asif Ali Zardari – Husband of Benazir Bhutto and current co-chairman of the PPP-P. Led negotiations with PML-N. With a reputation for corruption, he faces ongoing criminal charges. Has stated he will not run for prime minister.
• Nawaz Sharif – Former prime minister and leader of the PML-N. Ousted by Musharraf in 1999. Received commutation of some criminal charges in exchange for exile, but still faces legal troubles. Considered by many U.S. policymakers as too close to Islamist parties and potentially hostile to U.S. interests. Returned from exile, but would need an exception to Pakistan’s term-limit rule to become prime minister again. Led negotiations with the PPP.
• Makhdoom Amin Fahim – Vice-chairman of the PPP. Possible candidate for prime minister.
• Aitzaz Ahsan – Member of PPP-P, Supreme Court Bar Association President and outspoken critic of Musharraf’s manipulations of the legal system. Under government- imposed house arrest.