Unless the international community can find a medium- term strategy to build on the relative calm brought by the surge, Iraq will deteriorate back into violence before long, destabilizing the Middle East. The strategic consequences for Europe would be gigantic. Endemic instability in Iraq would reduce the chances of a diplomatic settlement with Iran, and cause Turkey to worry even more about Kurdish separatism than it does already - and concomitantly less about the domestic reform processes bringing it closer to the EU.
Efforts to create an effective EU energy security policy would be severely complicated by questions over the future of Middle Eastern oil supplies. The growing European investment in state-building in Lebanon and Palestine would be at the mercy of regional forces. And while it’s hard to predict the implications for terrorism in Europe, it’s also rather hard to ignore them.
So like it or not, the EU can’t keep on muddling through without an Iraq policy… To start outlining what such a package should look like, European governments should now agree to put their differences to one side, and appoint a senior political figure… to lead a small "EU Options Team"… There might be lessons to learn from Tony Blair’s post-retirement work on Palestine - the former UK Prime Minister has used personal diplomacy to unblock international funds for the Occupied Territories in recent months, in spite of claims he would be unwelcome in the Middle East. Access the full article>>

